Pound falls to all-time low against the US Dollar

The Pound has today (Monday) fallen to an all-time low against the US Dollar after Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, said more tax cuts are likely. Investors are worried this could stoke further inflation. GBPUSD fell to 1.0382 earlier although there has been a recovery back above 1.06 on hopes of emergency action by the Bank of England. A falling Pound is not all bad news – UK investors who hold overseas assets, for example in US Dollars, will benefit.

full report
https://realmim.com/pound-falls-to-all-time-low-against-the-us-dollar/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Busy week for Central Bank decisions

Last week’s US inflation number came in higher than expected and sparked a volatile reaction. The S&P 500 fell sharply and the dollar jumped along with the 10-year US Treasury yield. Optimism that price pressure was cooling was immediately put on hold. Headline inflation didn’t look too bad but that includes the price of oil which is falling fast. The Fed watches Core inflation (excludes oil) and that was up 0.6% over a month. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note has continued higher this week hitting 3.6% earlier today (Tuesday) for the first time since 2011.

Full report

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stocks bounce ahead of US CPI data

Global equities were higher last. The US S&P 500 broke a 3week run of losses as stocks bounced back from technically oversold conditions and on the back of optimism that inflation may be cooling – we note that the price of oil fell last week to its lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Signs of moderating inflation will raise hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease the expected rate of tightening over the coming months. Evidence may be forthcoming tomorrow (Tuesday) with the release of US CPI data.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/stocks-bounce-ahead-of-us-cpi-data/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Further Russian squeeze on Europe

Market View from Realm Investment Management – week ending 2nd September 2022

Equity Markets were lower last week as investors assessed the implications of the previous week’s hawkish Jackson Hole address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. US Treasury Yields moved higher with the 10Y Treasury yield rallying further from its August low, back towards its June high.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/further-russian-squeeze-on-europe/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Fed sent a very clear message on Friday

The main focus for investors was the annual Jackson Hole symposium where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s much anticipated speech on Friday led to some market volatility at the end of the week. Powell stated the Fed “must keep at it until the job is done” meaning interest rates must stay high until inflation has been brought under control. Investors anticipating that the Fed would begin lowering rates again early next year may well be disappointed.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/fed-sent-a-very-clear-message-on-friday/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Weaker-than-expected China data stalls the market

Economic data out of China stalled the markets at the end of last week and weakness has carried over to the start of this week. The weaker-than-expected data and news that Chinese Covid infections had reached a three-month high prompted the country’s central bank to unexpectedly cut interest rates.

Full report:
https://realmim.com/weaker-than-expected-china-data-stalls-the-market/

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Bear market rally or the birth of a new Bull

Market View from Realm Investment Management. Week ending 12th August 2022.

Stocks and risk-assets rallied last week reinforcing the view of some economists that inflation has peaked. US CPI data came in lower than expected and (along with recent US jobs data) is encouraging bulls that a so-called “soft landing” can be achieved, i.e. bringing inflation under control without causing a damaging recession.

Full report:
Bear market rally or the birth of a new Bull?

Market View week ending 8th August 2022

UK Market 5th August 2022

US Market 5th August 2022

U.S. Risk Barometer 5th August 2022

Europe Risk Barometer 5th August 2022

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Market View week-ending 29th July 2022

UK Market 29th July 2022

US Market 29th July 2022

U.S. Risk Barometer 29th July 2022

Europe Risk Barometer 29th July 2022

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Market Review week ending 15th July 2022

UK Market 15th July 2022

US Market 15th July 2022

U.S. Risk Barometer 15th July 2022

Europe Risk Barometer 15th July 2022

Disclaimer: ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’